Which statement best describes ARPA's tracking theory?

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ARPA’s approach is to build a track from past radar observations and use that history to estimate how the target is moving, then project that motion forward to predict where the target will be. By analyzing a sequence of previous positions, ARPA determines the target’s velocity and course, and uses a motion model to forecast future positions. This predictive capability is what enables calculating CPA and TCPA and planning safe maneuvers, even when the target changes course or speed. If only the current position were tracked, there would be no basis to anticipate maneuvers; if updates were real-time without projection, there’d be no forward guidance; if future positions were predicted without any history, the forecasts would be unreliable. Hence, tracking the probable past and projecting into the future best describes ARPA’s tracking approach.